ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects worldwide cereal production to reach roughly 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This marks a 2% decrease from the record harvest of 2025. The latest forecast also indicates a shortfall of 3.4 million tonnes compared to earlier estimates. Despite the decline, global cereal output is expected to remain the second highest on record, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes from last year.
Much of the downward trend is driven by maize, with production expected to be 1.309 billion tonnes. Hot and dry conditions have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland saw some of the biggest downward revisions. India and Paraguay experienced smaller cuts, while Argentina and Brazil’s stronger yields partially offset the decline. Both South American nations continue to produce maize well above their recent averages.
The outlook for wheat has improved compared to previous assessments, although total output remains below last year’s level. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat production at 810.7 million tonnes, up 4.2 million tonnes from earlier. Better yield expectations boosted forecasts for Canada and Morocco. Also, projections increased for Russia and Ukraine. However, dry conditions led to reduced estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production is still 3.8% below 2025.
Weakening maize production drags down global grain output
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is forecasted at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. That represents a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka supported this outlook. Still, weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States offset those gains. In the U.S., rice acreage also shrank to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s contribution to global supply.
World cereal consumption is expected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27. This is a 0.2% rise from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow. Wheat use, however, is forecasted to decline from last season’s high. Global rice use is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by growing food demand tied to population increases. Feed demand also supports coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
High cereal stocks persist despite a dimmer outlook
Global cereal stocks at the end of 2027 are forecasted at 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes below earlier predictions but still 1.8 million tonnes above opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the prior season. Wheat reserves are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, lower maize and barley inventories account for much of the downward adjustment in total stocks.
International cereal trade in 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from previous estimates. However, it remains below the record volume of 2025/26. Increased maize trade is a key driver, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% below the record set in 2025.