MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has approved a comprehensive long-term plan for its coal sector, setting an annual production goal of 662 million tonnes by 2050 according to its scenario. The strategy extends the country’s coal policies through the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia produced roughly 443 million tonnes of coal. This new target indicates a significant rise from that level. The government endorsed the plan under Order No. 2606-r, dated September 22, 2026.
The plan outlines multiple pathways for coal production, rather than a single fixed forecast. Its primary scenario estimates output reaching 530.1 million tonnes in 2030. Production would then increase to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, eventually hitting 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for the final year. The stress scenario anticipates 318.9 million tonnes, while a conservative approach suggests 460.8 million tonnes. The inertial scenario forecasts approximately 586.4 million tonnes.
Export figures are also central to the long-term objectives. Under the main scenario, exports are expected to reach 266.7 million tonnes in 2030 and 320.2 million tonnes in 2036. By 2050, exports could climb to 350.1 million tonnes. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan also addresses domestic consumption, processing capabilities, mining techniques, and regional output levels.
Eastern Siberia and Far East to Play Larger Role
The government’s strategy favors increased coal production in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. In 2024, these regions produced 48.3% of Russia’s total coal. Their combined share is projected to range between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050 across different scenarios. Russia reports more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves. The plan emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacity while exploring additional resource areas to meet future production goals.
Coal processing and extraction techniques are also included with separate numerical targets. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, accounted for 58.9% of total output. The plan aims to increase that share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining produced 78.4% of Russian coal in 2024, with projections suggesting a rise to between 82% and 85%. The strategy also covers areas such as labor efficiency, mining technology, safety standards, and environmental measures.
Three Phases Define the Path to 2050
Russia will implement the coal development plan in three distinct phases. The first phase lasts until 2030, focusing on near-term industry growth and production initiatives. The second phase runs from 2031 to 2036, emphasizing processing, coal utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase spans from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee execution, with support from other federal and regional authorities. Annual progress reports are required by the government order to the Economic Development Ministry.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the updated plan during a government session on September 21. It replaces the coal industry program through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that the new plan predicts a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050. He also estimated the broader multiplier effect at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target scenario’s 662 million tonne figure remains a projection, not the sole pathway for production growth.