GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – World Trade Organization has increased its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new projection more than doubles the 1.9 percent estimate released in March. The upgrade was supported by stronger trade during the first half of the year, shifts in supply chains, and increased investment in artificial intelligence equipment. In the first six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also predicts a 4.1 percent growth rate for merchandise trade in 2027.
Demand for technology hardware played a key role in the improved trade figures. Goods associated with artificial intelligence made up 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth in the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other equipment used in computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-supporting products surged 67 percent compared to a year earlier. The WTO estimates that global spending on AI infrastructure will rise by at least 30 percent in 2026.
Energy markets and shipping sectors experienced notable upheavals during this period. Crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other regions helped limit the overall decline to about 6 percent for crude oil. LNG exports worldwide dipped roughly 1 percent. Meanwhile, global container throughput increased by 3.9 percent through July, as trade shifted among different suppliers, ports, and routes.
Tech demand fuels enhanced goods trade performance
The service sector’s outlook was less optimistic than that for merchandise. The WTO revised its 2026 forecast for commercial services trade growth downward to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent. Transport and international travel faced disruptions, particularly affecting the Middle East. International tourist arrivals dropped 0.8 percent in the second quarter. For the first half, arrivals were still 0.4 percent higher than the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel spending also slowed during this period.
Some service segments continued to expand at faster rates. Computer services exports increased 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and an estimated 12 percent in the second. Financial services exports rose 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The WTO forecasts a 6.4 percent growth rate for commercial services trade in 2027. It also projects global GDP to grow by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent increase in 2027.
Asia’s export growth outlook dominates regional forecasts
The regional outlook reveals significant differences in expected merchandise export performance. Asia is forecast to achieve 9.9 percent growth in exports in 2026. North America follows with 5.7 percent, and Africa is projected to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is expected to post 3.4 percent growth, while Europe faces a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East’s outlook is the weakest, with merchandise exports expected to fall 17.2 percent during the year.
Import forecasts also vary sharply across regions. Asia is predicted to see 9.5 percent growth in imports, and Africa 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to rise 1.4 percent, compared to a 0.5 percent increase in Europe. Middle Eastern merchandise imports are forecast to decline 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that recent trade data shows resilience but also highlights uneven impacts from economic and geopolitical disruptions.